In 2006 Thomas Homer-Dixon, a political scientist and complexity theorist, warned that converging energy, environmental, and political-economic stresses could cause a breakdown of national and global order. But in the same book, The Upside of Down, Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization, he also suggested that some kinds of breakdown could open up extraordinary opportunities for creative, bold reform of our societies, if we’re prepared to exploit these opportunities when they arise.

He wrote the book after exploring the causes and effects of large-scale societal crises. His curiosity about why powerful civilizations like Rome collapsed, combined with a childhood fascination with the fragility of human achievement, led him to draw parallels between historical catastrophes and contemporary threats. Observing increasing complexity and rigidity in today’s societies—much like ancient Rome—he became interested in how breakdowns, while seemingly disastrous, can spark renewal and creativity.

The book’s message about using crisis as a springboard for adaptive, systems-level renewal is even more relevant today.

‍"Rather than resisting change, our societies must learn to adapt to the twists and turns of circumstance. This means we must sometimes give up our accomplishments. If we try to keep things largely the way they are, our societies will become progressively more complex and rigid and, in turn, progressively less creative and able to cope with sudden crises and shocks. Their collapse—when it eventually does happen—could then be so destructive that there would be little of the prior order left behind. And there would be little left to seed the vital process of renewal that should follow.”

“That trouble doesn’t have to be calamitous in its ultimate results, though. If we’re smart and a bit lucky, we have a good chance of avoiding a terrible outcome. In fact, just as happened after the great San Francisco fire—when a new and more resilient city rose from the ashes and America’s banking system was made far more resilient too—catastrophe could create a space for creativity that helps us build a better world for our children, our grandchildren, and ourselves.”‍

‍BOOK: The Upside of Down, Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization